President-Elect Trump and a New Majority Congress: 2025 Policy Outlook
With the results of the 2024 Presidential election cycle nearing completion, Former President Donald Trump pulled out an electoral victory with 312 electoral college votes compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 226. In addition, Republicans outperformed expectations in the Congressional races, taking control of the Senate and still in contention to hold on to the majority in the House (although not all races have been called), potentially giving President-elect Trump an ideal landscape in which to enact his policy agenda after the transition.
Presidential Transition
With the presidential race decided, attention now turns to the presidential transition. The President-elect has yet to launch a transition website, however, key official positions are being announced as Trump prepares for a second term. The transition is primarily being led by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., former Democratic presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard, Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, and Vice President-elect JD Vance. COSSA will continue to provide updates on plans for the transition, including notable policies and appointments for the social and behavioral science (SBS) community.
Senate Races
The Republican party gained four seats in the Senate elections, including the contentious Pennsylvania seat that belonged to Senator Bob Casey (D-PA), a member of the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee (HELP). This race was a significant loss for the Democratic Party as one of the previously held Democrat seats that was predicted to be a toss-up. Another notable race was Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), who managed to hold onto her seat despite the competitive nature of her race, remaining a champion for the SBS community as the Democratic leader of the Senate Labor, Health, and Human Services (LHHS) Appropriations Subcommittee. Republicans will hold a 53-47 majority in the 119th Congress.
House Races
As the House races continue to be called, as of this writing, the Republicans hold 214 of the required 218 seats needed to secure the majority, while the Democrats hold 205 seats. While many of the races left to be called are leaning Republican, most are too close to predict. Notably, SBS champion and Democratic leader of the House Appropriations Commerce, Justice, and Science (CJS) Subcommittee Representative Matt Cartwright (D-PA), lost his seat in a competitive race against Republican Rob Bresnahan. If the Republicans successfully keep control of the House, the White House and both chambers will be Republican.
The Appropriations Process
As previously reported by COSSA, in late September, Congress passed a stopgap funding measure to push the appropriations deadline for fiscal year (FY) 2025 to December 20. As Congress returns for the lame duck session, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has indicated that he is seeking to extend the continuing resolution (CR) to March, offering the new Republican majority more decision-making power. If the CR deadline is pushed to March, the appropriations process for FY 2026 would be pushed, including the Presidential Budget Request (PBR), which is normally released in February, and the House and Senate bills, which are normally released in the following months in anticipation of the October 1 deadline. While a delayed start to the appropriations process is not unusual, some Congressional members have indicated a preference to complete the FY 2025 appropriations process by the December 20 deadline so the new Congress can focus on the FY 2026 appropriations process.
With so many unknowns, close monitoring over the next several weeks will be critical to determining a path forward for social science advocacy. Join COSSA on December 5 at 2:00pm EST for our Post-Election Headlines webinar to discuss the election results and their effect on the social and behavioral science research community.